The following was published on MLB.com on Sunday October 1st — Postseason Watch: Here’s the field; final seeding TBD
The field is set, but things in the standings could still change between now and when the postseason starts on Oct. 3. Here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into Sunday’s action.
• Who holds the postseason tiebreakers?
The 2023 #postseason field is set!
Who are you rooting for this October? pic.twitter.com/mUiWEh9XZ2
— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2023
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY
AL Wild Card Series (starts Oct. 3)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Astros (6) at Twins (3)
Blue Jays (5) at Rays (4)
Orioles (1) and Rangers (2) have byes
NL Wild Card Series (Oct. 3)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
D-backs (6) at Brewers (3)
Marlins (5) at Phillies (4)
Braves (1) and Dodgers (2) have byes
AL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Rays/Blue Jays at Orioles
Twins/Astros at Rangers
NL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Phillies/Marlins at Braves
Brewers/D-backs at Dodgers
• The MLB postseason format, explained
TIEBREAKERS
Since 2022, all ties in the standings — for a division title or Wild Card spot, or to determine playoff seeding — have been determined solely by a series of mathematical tiebreakers, rather than on the field. A full breakdown of the current methodology can be seen here, but to summarize, the top three elements are, in order: head-to-head record, intradivision record (i.e. within the same division) and then record against opponents in the same league but a different division.
See here for a full breakdown of the key potential tiebreaker scenarios for each contender in 2023, and see here for a breakdown of remaining three-team scenarios.
Here is a look at the key tiebreakers to know heading into Sunday:
- If the Blue Jays, Astros and Rangers all ended up with 90 wins, it is not treated as a three-way tie, but rather as two separate two-way ties, with the AL West being settled first. In that scenario, the AL West would go to Houston, by virtue of winning the season series against Texas. The Rangers would take the second Wild Card spot while the Blue Jays would have the third Wild Card spot. (Texas finished with a better head-to-head record.)
- If the Blue Jays and Astros tie for the second Wild Card spot, that would go to Toronto, which would claim the No. 5 AL playoff seed, with Houston dropping to No. 6.
- The Marlins would win a tiebreaker with the D-backs for the second NL Wild Card spot (No. 5 NL playoff seed).
- Because the Cubs are one game behind the Marlins and D-backs and would lose a tiebreaker to either one, Chicago was eliminated from postseason contention on Saturday.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Who has clinched
Braves: NL East title, No. 1 NL seed, first-round bye
Dodgers: NL West title, No. 2 NL seed, first-round bye
Brewers: NL Central title and No. 3 NL seed
Phillies: No. 4 NL seed
D-backs: NL Wild Card spot (seed TBD)
Marlins: NL Wild Card spot (seed TBD)
In the NL, the only thing left to settle is the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, which will go to Arizona and Miami in some order.
Orioles: AL East title, No. 1 AL seed, first-round bye
Twins: AL Central title, No. 3 AL seed
Rays: No. 4 AL seed
Rangers: AL playoff berth
Astros: AL playoff berth
Blue Jays: AL Wild Card spot (seed TBD)
There is more still up in the air in the AL. Both Texas and Houston still have a shot at the AL West title, No. 2 AL seed and a first-round bye. The club that loses out on that prize could be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, with Toronto claiming the other.
3 key games from yesterday
Cubs 10, Brewers 6
Astros 1, D-backs 0
Rangers 6, Mariners 1
4 key games today
Marlins at Pirates, 3:05 p.m. ET
Rays at Blue Jays, 3:07 p.m. ET
Astros at D-backs, 3:10 p.m. ET
Rangers at Mariners, 3:10 p.m. ET
Tight races to watch
AL West: Rangers lead Astros by 1 game. Houston holds the tiebreaker advantage over Texas.
AL Wild Card: The Astros and Blue Jays both clinched Wild Card spots Saturday and are tied for the No. 2 Wild Card spot. Toronto holds the tiebreaker advantage over Houston.
NL Wild Card: The Marlins are in the No. 2 Wild Card spot, leading the D-backs by half a game. The Marlins hold the tiebreaker advantage.
Trends of note
Heading up: The Astros clinched a playoff berth with their third straight win Saturday night against the D-backs and will have a chance to capture first place in the AL West on the final day of the season with a win and a Rangers loss.
Heading down: Three clubs — the Cubs, Mariners and Reds — were all eliminated from playoff contention during Saturday’s action.
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